All hope for ratification by the US lies in the “lame duck” period post election and prior to the inauguration of the next President.
Candidate Trump still appears totally opposed to TPP in any form. Candidate Clinton’s position also seems to be hardening against the agreement.
Experts still see some hope for the Agreement – including the US – but the chances of it entering into force in its current for have diminished.
Saudi Arabia had assured New Zealand Ministers that the GCC would be publishing a list of “priority markets” for FTA negotiations and that this would include New Zealand. This has not happened. Minister McClay is planning a visit to the region in a few weeks and will hopefully learn more about what is going on.
The ASEAN, China, Japan, Korea, India, Australia and New Zealand Regional Cooperation Economic Partnership held its 14th Round of negotiations in Vietnam. A 15th Round is going to take place in China in October. Some progress has been made in agreement methodologies for negotiating goods trade but very little has been achieved on services and investment.
EU and Brexit
Ministers and officials remain bullish about the prospects for launching a FTA negotiation with the EU on schedule early next year. There seems general acceptance that a separate negotiation may be needed in the WTO over New Zealand quota arrangements. A separate FTA with the UK will also be needed. Minister McCully has visited the UK recently to explore possibilities.
China FTA Refresh
Zero progress has been achieved.